Thursday, February 2, 2017

Does passive investing undermine capitalism?

Passively managed products account for one third of U.S. mutual fund assets today—up from 20% four years ago—reflecting a net US$2 trillion shift to passive and away from management.
But questions about this trend’s sustainability, and warnings about its consequences, have arisen. Take, for instance, the note from brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein, entitled “The silent road to serfdom: why passive investing is worse than Marxism.” In it, analyst Inigo Fraser-Jenkins argues that active management helps the efficient allocation of capital, an important function in a free market.
For our part, we define passive investing as cap- or market-weighted indexing derived from the total market value of component holdings. All others, including alternative or smart beta, are forms of active management that require periodic rebalancing.
What consequences does the continuing movement toward passive investing suggest, and what does it mean for investors and advisors?

Valuation concerns

Passive investing does not involve analyzing individual companies, so relative and absolute valuations may be distorted, impairing the market’s ability to effectively allocate capital based on enterprise merit.
The less money available for selecting companies with better prospects, the worse off the function of price discovery that underpins the capital markets—and capitalism itself. This is the concern of Bernstein’s note, which references economist Frederich Hayek’s “The Road to Serfdom” and the complaint against “free-riding” indexers.
But consider that the annual turnover rate of active mutual fund holdings in the U.S. is 85%, according to The Motley Fool. That compares to 4.98% for the S&P 500 and 4% for the S&P/TSX Composite. So, even if passive grows to 80% of assets, the turnover from the 20% active slice would be $3 trillion—certainly enough for price discovery. More compelling than that argument is Ayn Rand’s idea of self-interest, a force that would ensure that asset mispricing wouldn’t last for long.


Diversification concerns

The investment industry’s primary risk management tool is diversification. If money flows into (or out of) all the holdings of an index at the same time, all components will move in the same direction, blunting the effectiveness of diversification against volatility.
I’d argue that risk management is most needed to protect against major declines. But when those major declines are happening, correlations tend towards 1.0, rendering diversification less effective. Advisors need better risk management tools generally, and those tools could compensate for the anti-diversification effects of passive investing en masse.

Performance

Most active managers underperform their passive benchmarks through most periods—as shown by the S&P Dow Jones SPIVA scorecard—contributing to the popularity of passive investing. But no trend goes on forever. Consider personal leverage in 1929, corporate leverage in 1987, oil stocks in the 1980s and technology stocks 2000-2001. Surely active management will have its day?
The reality is that active performance before costs equals passive performance, and this would be the case regardless of the proportion of active and passive management employed.
Passive investors would not trade and active investors would trade only with each other. Active managers in aggregate represent a cap-weighted market index.

Distortions

Passive investing can create distortions in three circumstances. First, net cash flows into a passive portfolio create a cash position, leading to a performance difference from the index until the cash is invested. Second, when passive funds are forced to buy or sell, the lack of liquidity of some smaller index components may temporarily push prices higher or lower than would otherwise be the case.


Third, when the index’s composition changes, there is a period of adjustment as passive portfolios sell the removed companies and buy replacements. The cost of these changes was estimated to be 0.2% per annum in the U.S., according to Winton Capital.
After eight additions were made to the S&P TSX Composite on September 16, 2016, they were up an average of 4.2% in their first week while the index advanced only 0.4%. So, pricing distortions can follow changes to an index.
Investors need to be aware of the distortions caused by passive strategies. They allocate capital by market capitalization but can also impact individual holdings.

In a passive world, winners are investors

Motivated market players will always find market mispricing and arbitrage it away. Valuation distortions should lead to more opportunities for active managers, but the difference between the most over- and undervalued assets is an important factor in determining this. Since less-skilled investors may move to passive investing, leaving more skilled active managers to undertake price discovery, these spreads may narrow. Better long/short strategies will also close this gap.
Corporate governance may also improve as large, passive shareholders like Vanguard use their influence across all their holdings, including the smallest ones that may have escaped previous institutional scrutiny. Investors are the winners. The biggest future losers from more passive encroachment will continue to be active managers, unless they find a way to beat their passive benchmarks with more consistency or develop a value proposition using passive issue selection within active allocation strategies.
Mark Yamada is President of PÜR Investing Inc., a registered portfolio manager and software development firm. Disclosure: PÜR Investing Inc. sub-advises for, and provides risk-based model portfolios to, Horizons ETFs.

Thursday, July 5, 2012


The puck stops here: Use ETFs as a portfolio’s last line of defence

This is the third article in a series.


Portfolio managers can learn from hockey. Previously, we’ve discussed balanced and aggressive attacks for neutral and positive markets, and the neutral-zone trap as to defense defend against a potentially hostile markets. This month, we address the “chip and chase” and the last line of defence, goaltending.

Low-volatility chip and chase

Playing the puck deep into the opponent’s end and quickly pursuing it involves risk. Giving up control may award your opponent with possession. Some risk is mitigated by the fact that it happens positioning so deep in the opponents’ end. A low-volatility market is perfect for taking such risks. But you need good speed and solid fore-checking.

Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull rarely employed this approach; Jagr, Malkin, and Crosby use it infrequently. However, the Canuck’s line of Alex Burrows and the Sedin brothers [DASH] who don’t mind banging bodies in the corners [DASH] are extremely effective in frustrating and wearing down opponents with their “cycle”-type offence.

The “cycle” approach is like identifying uncorrelated asset classes [DASH] some will do well, while others won’t. Equities, commodities and bonds are three good examples (see, “Equities, commodities, bonds,” this page). Someone should always be open for a shot or a pass.

Yet asset correlations aren’t static. The relationship between stocks, bonds and commodities will change over time and must be watched carefully, particularly when volatility is high or rising. Other aspects of the chip and chase are similar to the 2-1-2 structure described in the first article of this series (see, “ETF tips from the rink,” advisor.ca/etf-hockey).

Last line of defence

Recent market volatility has shown that cash or short-term fixed-income instruments are occasionally the only safe havens. Diversification simply fails to control risk during periods of high volatility. In a low-interest-rate environment, this is an even more painful realization. If investing time horizons are long [DASH] 10 years or more [DASH] trying to rebalance to a fixed mix may pay off. For some individual investors, however, there is no guarantee asset-class returns will approach the long-term averages that underpin their financial plans in time to skate them back on side. Sometimes, we must rely on that last line of defence [DASH] goaltending.

Goaltending has evolved, as have the choices in short-term fixed-income offerings. Today, most goalies use the “butterfly” technique. They spend lots of time on their knees with legs splayed outwards to maximize ice-level net coverage. Glove, blocker and stick skills deflect everything else, making superior mobility and quickness important. Glenn Hall and Tony Esposito were early proponents. One risk is the so-called “five hole” between the legs. Like credit or liquidity risk for a bond fund, this is not normally a concern, but occasionally causes gnashing of a coach’s teeth.

So how should we deal with money-market funds in low-interest-rate environments? Forget about them. iShares Premium Money Market ETF (CMR) has an MER of 0.27%, compared to major banks’ money-market mutual-fund MERs of about 0.55%, a bargain if your client has $25,000 or more to park.

However, it is difficult to justify with annual returns of around 1.0%. Like a vulnerable goaltender on the blocker side (the Leafs’ Jonas Gustavsson) or on the glove side (James Reimer or Ben Scrivens), low net-of-fee returns from money-market funds suggest looking elsewhere for protection and yield income.

Marty Brodeur, Tim Thomas and Dominik Hasek have successfully used hybrid goaltending styles. Likewise, other ETF vehicles can be used effectively as money market substitutes but with more risk. Short-term fixed-income ETFs are the obvious first choice, but short-term laddered-fixed-income government and corporate ETFs, and short-target-maturity ETFs, give advisors even more flexibility (see “ETF vehicles,” this page).

In low-volatility environments, diversification helps most. Consider equities, commodities and bonds. When volatility increases, stronger defence may be needed. Short-term fixed-income choices, other than money-market, are available to enhance yield; but watch out as costs become more important considerations. AER


Table 1

HED: Equities, commodities, bonds

Broad-based equities
Broad-based commodities
Broad-based Canadian bonds
iShares MSCI World (XWD)
iShares Broad Commodity (CBR)
Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond ( VAB)
Vanguard MSCI US Broad Market (VUS)

iShares DEX Universe (XBB)
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Comp. (XIC)

BMO Aggregate Bond (ZAG)


Table 2
HED: ETF vehicles

Short-term fixed income
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
Vanguard Canadian Short-Term Bond
VSB
0.15%
BMO Short term Federal Bond
ZFS
0.22%
iShares DEX Short-Term Bond
XSB
0.25%
iShares DEX Short-Term Corporate
XSH
0.25%
BMO Short Provincial Bond
ZPS
0.27%
BMO Short Corporate Bond
ZCS
0.32%

Short-term laddered
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
iShares 1-to-5 yr Laddered Government
CLF
0.17%
Powershares 1-to-5 yr Laddered Investment Grade Corporate 
PSB
0.25%
iShares 1-to-5 yr Laddered Corporate
CBO
0.28%

Short-term target maturity
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
BMO 2013 Corporate Bond Target Maturity
ZXA
0.30%
RBC 2013 Target Corporate Bond
RQA
0.30%
RBC 2014 Target Corporate Bond
RQB
0.30%


The neutral-zone trap: Positioning  ETFs to counteract volatile markets 
 
This is the second in a series. Next month: the chip and chase for rotational markets and goaltending styles for the last line of defense. 

In the previous issue, we discussed the need for a balanced and aggressive attack during neutral and positive markets. This month, we examine the neutral-zone trap for protecting against a potentially hostile market.
Setting the trap
When the opposition controls the puck in its own end, the neutral-zone trap can be used to counteract the rush before it develops into a major threat. In recent years, capital markets have appeared unpredictable for extended periods. They seem to react to one crisis after another, while dominating investors by keeping them off balance. Current events, rather than longer-term disciplines, seem to be most important.
Both Jacques Lemaire (Devils and Wild) and Guy Carbonneau (Canadiens) have leveraged the trap effectively to thwart attacks. Randy Carlyle, too, used it to coach Anaheim to the 2007 Stanley Cup (Leaf fans can dream on!). It was so effective that the NHL moved to strictly enforce obstruction rules, while allowing the two-line pass to make the trap less useful (see “Two-line passes,” this page).
Meant to disrupt momentum, players space themselves in the neutral zone in a 1-2-2 formation with one fore-checker looking to take advantage of a turnover. In a portfolio, this checker can be an aggressive equity fund like a small-cap or an emerging-markets fund that will respond quickly if the market trend suddenly turns positive (see “Fore-checker: aggressive small cap and emerging markets,” this page).
Two forwards block any attack lanes along the boards forcing the play toward the centre. These players must be ready to strike if they create a turnover. Broadly-based equity positions would serve this two-way function well, perhaps one domestic like XIC or VCE and one global/international like XWD, VEF or ZIN. (See “Forward: Canadian Equity,” and “Forward: global/international equity,” this page).
The two players on defence delay attackers while their forwards reposition to defend if no turnover can be forced. In a portfolio, these positions will depend on the risk tolerance of the investor. In a low-interest-rate environment, some return potential is important, but defence is the primary objective. High-yield or convertible bonds are risky, but offer better upside. Pairing with a defensive offset, like a short term/duration or laddered ETF, would provide the right mix of defence with offensive potential.  (See “Defence: high yield and convertible bonds,” and “Defence: short-term or laddered bonds,” this page).
Mounting a defence in the face of a powerful market onslaught can be a challenge. When volatility picks up, there are few tactics [DASH] other than cash or high-quality short-term bonds [DASH] that can preserve capital. Whether or not you have a sense about the kind of market threats ahead, ETFs can be useful players in positioning you correctly to defend and attack. AER

Thanks again to Dr. Jim Sugiyama, hockey savant, for his input.   

NOTE TO ART: This will likely be two pages

BOX
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SIDEBAR 1
HED: Two-line passes

SIDEBAR 2
HED: Fore-checker: aggressive small cap and emerging market funds

Exchange traded fund
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (CAD hedged)
XSU
0.35%
Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets Index
VEE
0.49%
iShares S&P/TSX SmallCap Index Fund
XCS
0.55%
BMO Emerging Markets Equity Index
ZEM
0.57%
Claymore BRIC ETF
CBQ
0.67%
Claymore Broad Emerging Markets ETF
CWO
0.71%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
XEM
0.82%

SIDEBAR 3
HED: Forward: Canadian Equity (broad lowest cost)
Exchange traded fund
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX60 Index (swap)
HXT
0.07%
Vanguard MSCI Canada Index
VCE
0.09%
BMO Dow Jones Titans 60 Index
ZCN
0.16%
iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index
XIU
0.17%
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index
XIC
0.25%

SIDEBAR 4
HED: Forward: Global/International equity
Exchange traded fund
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
Vanguard MSCI EAFE Index (CAD hedged)
VEF
0.37%
iShares MSCI World Index
XWD
0.45%
BMO International Equity Hedged to CAD Index
ZIN
0.50%

SIDEBAR 5
HED: Defence: High yield and convertible bonds
Exchange traded fund
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
Claymore Advantaged Convertible Bond
CVD
0.45%
iShares DEX HYBrid Bond Index
XHB
0.45%
Claymore Advantaged High Yield Bond
CHB
0.56%
iShares U.S. High Yield Index
XHY
0.60%
XTF Canadian Convertible Liquid Universe
CXF
0.65%
Powershares Fundamental High Yield Corporate Bond
PFH
0.65%
BMO High Yield Corporate bond
ZHY
0.69%

SIDEBAR 6
HED: Defence: Short term or laddered bonds
Exchange traded fund
Symbol
Mgt. Expenses
Claymore 1-5 year Laddered Government Bond
CLF
0.17%
BMO Short Federal Bond Index
ZFS
0.22%
iShares DEX Short Term Corporate Universe + Maple
XSH
0.25%
Powershares 1-5 year laddered Inv. Grade Corp. Bond
PSB
0.25%
iShares DEX Short Term Bond Index
XSB
0.25%
Claymore 1-5 Year Laddered Corporate Bond
CBO
0.28%
BMO 2013 Corporate Bond Target Maturity
ZXA
0.30%
RBC Target 2013 Corporate Bond
ROA
0.30%
BMO Short Term Bond
ZCS
0.32%